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Since the financial crisis, global oil demand has been flagging. From the beginning of this year, including the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and OPEC forecast, including the three major organizations are the latest oil supply and demand report, world oil demand this year is expected to fall again, fall record low.
Since the economic urgent position, international oil demand has been flagging. From the starting of this year, encompassing the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC outlook, encompassing the three foremost associations are the newest oil provide and demand report, world oil demand this year is anticipated to drop afresh, drop record low.
The three agencies lowered oil demand
Energy Agency is usually supported on worldwide GDP expansion prediction for oil demand, and not too long in the past, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) notably lessened the prediction of worldwide GDP, said the worldwide economic procedure to shrink this year, up to 1% for the first time since World War II opposing expansion, last amended expansion prediction of 0.5%.
A message, the world's major energy forecasting agencies have lowered this year's global oil demand forecast.
Published in the current IEA monthly report that worldwide oil demand prediction down to 83.4 million barrels / day, for 29 years to decline the largest, the diagram is the least 5-year values. Among them, the deduced nations, demand for oil this year, plunged 4.9 out of 100 last year, deducing nations may be the first time since 1994 show descent in demand for crude oil.
In January this year to April, IEA for 2009 international oil demand is anticipated to gradually down turn, down turn of 430,000 barrels / day, down 1 million barrels / day, down 1.2 million barrels / day, as well as the down turn in the lately issued 240 million barrels / day. "At present, the stride of international financial recession comparable to the early 80s of last century." IEA said in its report.
Not only that, regardless of 14 months EIA4 short-term power outlook issued as pessimistic IEA said, but pulled down by financial down turn, which will extend in 2009 on international oil demand approximates smaller than the March number 180,000 barrels per day.
OPEC also in a few days ago for the first 8 months of this year to cut its global oil demand forecast. OPEC said world oil demand in 2009 estimates will be a daily reduction of 430,000 barrels a day, reduced to 84.18 million barrels / day. Last month, OPEC predicted world oil demand this year will be reduced by 1.2%.
Is the principle source of the worldwide monetary downward spiral
Forecast for the matching three greatest schools of worldwide oil demand will be the principle source of descent attributed to the fiscal critical purpose fetched about by the worldwide monetary downturn.
OPEC, in its monthly oil market that the global economic downturn continued to inhibit growth in oil demand, especially in inhibiting the United States, Japan and China's oil demand growth. Industrialized countries, oil demand will decline this year, while oil demand in developing countries may be a slight increase.
IEA trusts that the world's greatest oil client the United States, vitality demand is extensively worse demand for crude oil this year, the principle justification, but has been observed as mechanical devices of worldwide vitality in China and other arising markets, have in addition commenced to present signals of decline.
Energy use as the world's greatest might, the United States in the fourth quarter of 2008 the economic procedure will shrink by 6.3 out of 100, about the inferior recital in 25 years. Economists looked frontwards to the first 3 months are in addition the frail recital of the economic procedure, some economists look frontwards to the economic procedure signed up by 4 ~ 5%. President of the United States, notwithstanding the fresh Obama and the subject of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the U.S. monetary outlook confident appraisal warmer, but more economists have been questioned.
The IEA report forecasts that China is expected to escort in 2009 for the first time in 19 years a fall in demand of crude oil, the rate will come to 1%. And other appearing finances, oil demand was decreased by 0.1%.
IEA said in the report, comprehensive in January and February facts and numbers, the present Chinese oil demand over the identical time span dropped 6.9%. In this consider, some professionals accept as factual that: "January and February of the down turn in oil demand, on the one hand, the influence of financial urgent position, a general down turn in the manufacturer functioning rate, slower development in the petrochemical industry. On the other hand, taking into account the output component in the Spring Festival vacation plants . "
In addition, the General Administration of Customs of China released data show that China's March crude oil imports of 3.86 million daily barrels, more than the imports in February increased 33 percent. This is also China's crude oil imports hit a high of over the past year, only in March last year, the highest point of the 17.3 million tons less 960,000 tons.
Recovery in demand as early as next year
Three forecasting administration in the report in addition when oil use is envisaged to change the tide.
In mid-March, New York oil costs in 50 U.S. dollars this year on the first return. IEA considers that the fresh rebound in crude oil is due to more elements, but the greatest determination element in oil costs is still deliver and demand, and the carrying on worldwide monetary fault in the short time span will not change on the worldwide oil demand is looked frontwards to pessimistic.
The EIA in addition said that worldwide oil deliver as OPEC lessened oil goods produced to lessen extensively counterbalance by the worldwide monetary recession produced by descent in oil demand effect. EIA skilled population, the fresh descent in oil costs OPEC to curtail end wares and to a humble rebound in prices. EIA in addition deliberated that the consequence of worldwide monetary downward spiral, the United States midpoint charge of crude oil this year is assessed to be 53 U.S. dollars a barrel, if the economic procedure recapture its higher movement in 2010, then oil costs will get higher to throughout 63 U.S. dollars a barrel.
Low in the international oil utilisation, the OPEC constituents will obey firmly with the output designs have been announced. OPEC's report displays that in March by the output quotas of the 11 OPEC constituents to decrease output in February more than 245,000 barrels a day, still higher than the aim of 720,000 barrels of high yield. OPEC acquiesced in March in the implementation rate of 83 per hundred, while the chronicled mean grade of about 60%. Market participants have said that "the implementation of the rate of 60 per hundred is much higher than the chronicled mean grade of OPEC may be the implementation of the design is the best performance."
Moreover, OPEC's purpose of scenery in addition in the outcome of modifications, more and more population trust that oil costs went up to throughout 50 U.S. dollars a barrel has become a compromise charge, makers can get concurrently demand, they can conflict hard with the monetary recession of the client were acceptable. Therefore, it is broadly chatting deliberated the market, OPEC goods produced accord is dubious to farther enhance the degree of implementation.
Published monthly IEA report also forecasts the global economy and demand for crude oil in 2010 will it be possible to recover, as the last century, the early 80's for 4 years decline in demand for crude oil will not occur. - 18762
